Sunday, March 1, 2009

Comparing Recessions

The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis has a fantastic site that allows you to compare this recession against any of the other 10 most recent recessions, on the basis of where were are now versus where they were then.

The news isn’t good for optimists: a lot of recessions were over by now.

But, the news isn’t good for pessimists either: on employment, 3 of the 10 were worse than this one, and on output 4 of 9 were worse (there’s a tie in there I didn’t count).

Now, past behavior is no guarantee of future performance, but 10 out of 10 recessions suggest that employment and output will bottom out and start improving by summer.

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