Wednesday, April 14, 2010

The Recession Is Not Over Officially

Both The Wall Street Journal and The New York Times have run pieces this week about next Monday’s official announcement from the NBER Business Cycle Dating committee.

Unlike most countries, the U.S. has a non-partisan, non-government committee of macroeconomists that calls turning points.

They do not make timely announcements, and they do not meet that often.

The rumor is that they are going to announce that the are still not sure when the economy troughed.

The reasoning is twofold: 1) the data that is old enough to be solid — 6-12 months — doesn’t show a distinct trough, and 2) the newer data, which looks like a recovery, isn’t solid yet.

My guess is that they will meet in the summer, or over Christmas vacation, and declare a trough late last summer. My money is on August.

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