Friday, January 15, 2016

Is This a Peak?

Is the U.S. economy peaking? Maybe. Some people think it is.

I am a bad person to ask on this one. Yes, this is my field of expertise. But personally, I tend to be too optimistic. So I tend to miss peaks as they’re happening.

One reason for this is that peaks and troughs are names that are poorly chosen. To me, peaks are sharp, and troughs are not.

But, in real time, peaks are hard for the public to feel, and troughs are more distinct. It’s like the tops of the business cycle are mountains, but old, rounded ones. And the business cycle lows points aren’t wide flat valleys between mountains, but the bottom of steep canyons.

Anyway, some people are wondering. Read “Behind the Pain: Misplaced Faith” in the January 14 issue of The Wall Street Journal.

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