Tuesday, December 26, 2017

Why Is Macro So Hard? A General Absence of People Who Are Smart Enough

This is from Patrick McKenzie’s twitter thread, where he mostly talks about high tech insights:

There is no hidden reserve of smart people who know what they're doing, anywhere. Not in government, not in science, not in tech, not at AppAmaGooBookSoft, nowhere. The world exists in the same glorious imperfection that it presents with.

Stop voting for, say, Clinton, because you believe she had a hidden reserve of smart people.

Stop voting for, say, Trump, because he has a different/better hidden reserve of smart people.

The world is a statistically noisy place, and it’s too big for even smart people to fathom completely. Stop pretending that they can, and stop believing them when they say they do.

In macro, there are no hard answers. Just heuristics. Get used to it.

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