I forgot to link to this post that was on Marginal Revolution this week. May as well quote it in full now:
Myopic Voters and Natural Disaster Policy
Do voters effectively hold elected officials accountable for policy decisions? Using data on natural disasters, government spending, and election returns, we show that voters reward the incumbent presidential party for delivering disaster relief spending, but not for investing in disaster preparedness spending. These inconsistencies distort the incentives of public officials, leading the government to underinvest in disaster preparedness, thereby causing substantial public welfare losses. We estimate that $1 spent on preparedness is worth about $15 in terms of the future damage it mitigates. By estimating both the determinants of policy decisions and the consequences of those policies, we provide more complete evidence about citizen competence and government accountability.
From the now classic paper of the same title by Andrew Healy and Neil Malhotra. As Neil said on twitter “It becomes depressing tweeting out this article after every instance of government failure,” but there you go.
Google Scholar says that paper has gotten almost 700 cites in the 12 years it's been out. That's pretty good.
In this case, winterizing isn't good politics, but cleaning up after the disaster probably will be.
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