Monday, March 11, 2024

Has the State Failed in Haiti?

Haiti is the poorest country in the Americas. It has not had much of a viable state for the last 2 generations.

But, it really seems to have come apart over the last month, with armed gangs apparently taking over the country.

The Prime Minister is currently in Puerto Rico. It's unclear if any part of the state is actually functioning. The Dominican Republic, which has done quite well economically over the last 30 years, refused to let the Haitian Prime Minister land there and drive across the border.

The U.S. has evacuated nationals, and added troops to the embassy.

Here's the Google search page for Haitian news.

In the language of Chapter VI in the Handbook, the country still exists, the nation of Haitians still exists, but the state is barely holding on.

Macroeconomically ... expect a humanitarian crisis in Haiti over the next several months.

Update 1: the Prime Minister of Haiti did promise to resign the day after I posted this. He has yet to return to Haiti or even to the island of Hispaniola (that Haiti shares with the Dominican Republic). And he set conditions on his resignation having to do with the transfer of the Haitian state to its next leader.

Update 2: Haiti has not even had what one could call a coup (where the leader of a state is forcefully replaced with a new leader). Instead, gangs are just running rampant. The apparently strongest gang leader goes by the name "Barbecue". I am not confident of the willingness of someone who goes by Barbecue to observe the polite and formal transfer of power proposed by a former Prime Minister with little or no power base in the country.

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