Tuesday, January 11, 2022

What Countries are Macroeconomists Worried About Right Now? Part 1: Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan is currently having some issues with unrest. This week, at least, they appear to be under control.

This is more of a geopolitical concern rather than a macroeconomic one. Kazakhstan is a bigger than average and richer than the average country, but since the distribution of that data is approximately Pareto (i.e., not like a bell curve) it's not that important.

BUT, Kazakhstan is, after Belarus, the former Soviet republic that is most closely aligned with Russia currently. So, the Russians view this as a problem, and the Russians ... hmmm ... try to "fight above their weight".

In addition, the Russians view the problems in Kazakhstan as being fomented by the U.S.† This is indirect, but they are probably correct: the U.S. CIA offloaded a lot of non-spy stuff on to an NGO called the National Endowment for Democracy which they fund to stir things up.

N.B. I personally like what the NED does. But we should not fool ourselves that just because we like something that the Russians will. 

† I added this footnote after class. This link goes to the blog Zero Hedge. This blog is written by a team using the pseudonym Tyler Durden, but also includes sponsored posts from fellow travelers. It has somewhat of a bad reputation as being conservative/Republican/anti-Democrat. To me it seems more pro-finance and anti-politics. Anyway, people working in investments thrive on up to the minute news and analysis, even if that turns out later to be inaccurate. In this case, I think it's a good source.

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