China Coup Rumors

Something is going on in China, the world's second biggest (or maybe biggest) economy.

No one is sure what. It's definitely something.

But it's all rumors, and they seem a little overblown. And they are definitely being fanned by influences in India (not a friend of China).

Specifically, the rumors are that Xi Jinping is under house arrest.

Factually, here's what we know. Xi attended the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting in Samarkand (Uzbekistan).† But he left early. After returning to China, he has not been seen in public or on Zoom. He got back 10 days ago. There was a meeting of a defense organization that Xi heads; he was not there, but a general that everyone thought was purged 2 weeks ago ... was. 

And here' the weirdest thing: commercial air traffic in the northern half of China has been mostly shut down for 5 days now. I am watching Beijing Capital International Airport on flightradar24.com right now, and it shows 12 planes in the entire region, and only 4 at gates. (Now, it's not a big airport even for China, but it's comparable to Sea-Tac or Houston Bush in the U.S.). And, it's 9 am on Monday in Beijing right now: prime time for departures. I am looking at Sea-Tac, where it's 7 pm on a Sunday, and the planes on the ground are so dense I can't count them, and the planes in the air alone outnumber all the planes in the Beijing region. (Yes, I am using the same scale on the map).

On the pro-Xi side, an official publication of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) released a list of attendees at a big upcoming conference and Xi's name was on the list. That conference is huge. It's the 20th National Congress (held every 5th year) of the CCP. At it, Xi was expected to be confirmed for an unprecedented third term (although he has made it clear before that his plan is to be in charge for life, this would be a stamp of approval for that).

† The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (or SCO) is a group China has formed of important countries with underdeveloped economies in opposition to western, developed, country interests.

Hat tip to my son Ben.