Sunday, January 29, 2023

GDP Announcement for 2022 IV

This came out last Thursday.

These releases are scheduled in advance, but generally at 6:30 Mountain time on the 4th Thursday of the month.

GDP is collected by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA.gov). Here's the news release.

GDP is measured as a flow, so it's never available until after the time period ends (so the flow is finished), and then after a delay (shorter delays suggest less accuracy.

The U.S. measures their GDP on a quarterly and an annual basis. Most developed countries have shifted to doing it monthly.

In the U.S., this is done like how you're supposed to write an English paper: draft, revision, and final version. What we got last week was the draft (called the Advance Estimate). The others will come out in 1 month and 2 months.

It showed a real GDP growth rate of 2.9%/year, annualized. 

It was expected to be in the high 2's, and this was a little better than expected.

Current dollar GDP for the U.S. is now $26.13 T/year, or $26,130,000,000,000/year.

Different price indices are collected and released by a number of different agencies in the U.S. The one that goes with GDP, and is used to convert (nominal) GDP into real GDP is called the PCE index. 

In the fourth quarter, (nominal) GDP increased by 6.5%/yr., the PCE increased by 3.2%/yr. The 2.9%/yr. for real GDP is derived from those.

GDP and real GDP are typically announced as annualized measures over a quarter. Price indices are often released on year over year basis, but you can find both.

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