Friday, March 29, 2024

What the Baltimore Ship/Bridge Disaster Will Do to the Budget Deficit

On Monday we discussed how the announced deficit is not as accurate as it sounds. This is because the government doesn't actually know how much it will spend or receive in advance. For example, natural disasters can make the deficit worse because extra money is spent in disaster relief.

Then on Tuesday a cargo ship hit and collapsed a bridge, effectively blocking the harbor of Baltimore.

At this time it isn't clear who own the bridge, or to what extent it was insured. But, the state of Maryland almost immediately announced they don't have the money to rebuild it. This is not surprising: most big transportation infrastructure projects are funded by the federal government, with the work managed at the sate level. So, it should not be surprising that within a day the federal Department of Transportation announced they would be getting the bridge rebuilt as quickly as possible.

I am not sure how much a bridge that's both long, and high, over water, will cost. My guess is $5B. If I'm right, while this will increase the deficit, it won't increase it by much: the deficit is roughly $1.7T/year or $1,700B/year. That works out to be less than 1%.

The people in the federal government are not as dumb as most people think. There is money set aside for this sort of thing. But, just like households that save for a rainy day, that amount will help, but may not cover the whole cost. That money has already been allocated by Congress, so it's considered "spent" already, and would not add to the deficit. Anything extra on top of that would add to the deficit.

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