Why Is Macro So Hard? Another "Economist" Who Isn't an Economist At All

This one is pretty hard to believe.

But there it was in the Wall Street Journal: "The Economist Whose Contrarian Streak Has Gotten Attention in Biden and Trump Camps".

Pettis isn’t a trained economist. He describes himself as “a finance guy,” ...

Now, my own biases may be creeping in here, but I think a lot of the fascination of the press with Wall Street types borders on parasitic (or worse, but this is a family blog). 

Anyway, it's a fact. So as an economics student, please put on your tinfoil hat when anyone ... I repeat ANYONE ... starts implying that people involved in buying and selling assets have special insight to macroeconomics.

A career on Wall Street ... worked in the bond divisions of investment banks Bear Stearns and First Boston. 

And for 20+ years he's been an finance professor at a very good university in China. Without actually having a degree in finance (he has an MBA with a focus in finance, and a Masters of International Affairs).† His Wikipedia page notes that he was a bond trader ... so basically ... he started in sales.

Oh ... and a punk rock music producer and night club owner in China.

Who sings this guys praises? Well, the article quotes Robert Lighthizer, Trump's first term trade representative. Again ... the problem is ... Lighthizer is an attorney, not an economist (seemingly not even a undergraduate major). And Oren Cass (another non-economist who plays one on TV) whom I trashed in the immediately preceding post. Go figure. Oh, and Katherine Tai, Biden's current trade representative, who happens to be an attorney (and definitely has zero economics training as an undergraduate or graduate student).

Who  doesn't? Well they quote Maurice Obstfeld, who's a likely winner of a Nobel Prize in the next 10 years or so for his work in trade.

“The world is really complicated. For Michael Pettis, the world is really simple,” said Maury Obstfeld ...

Maury? Can't say I've heard that before.

***

For the umpteenth time in my career ... there is nothing wrong with having opinions about macroeconomics ... and no requirement that one have any background in economics ... but the analogy here is that we keep getting told to pay attention to what the assistant basketball coach has to say about modern dance.

Macro is hard. And macroeconomists are wrong about it all the time. But articles like this don't even note that we probably a bit of an edge on this topic.

FWIW: the article is written by 2 Wall Street Journal reporters, and at least one of them did major in economics as an undergraduate.

† Do note that this sort of background would not qualify Pettis to get a tenured or tenure-track job in a finance department in an AACSB accredited school, although his experience and two books would probably be enough to keep him as qualified lecturer once he had his foot in the door.