A Bad Day for Iron County

Nine positive test results today alone: Washington County (with over 3 times as many people) had eight.

Iron County is down to doubling every 13 days. Here's the chart:

That dropoff is mostly since Thursday.

Keep in mind that I said in class back in March that Iron County would be in trouble when we got to about 125 cases. I was figuring a fifth of those would require hospitalization (25), and a fifth of those (5) would need to be in the ICU, and we'd be fairly close to filling up our 6 beds with COVID-19 patients.

That wasn't quite correct, and I know more now.

I think we're probably in trouble when we hit something like 75 cases within a week. I'm still thinking the one fifth, and fifth of a fifth, so that makes three. But I now expect those people to each be in the ICU for a minimum of a week, and for the ICU to require about half its beds for non-COVID-19 patients.

We're at 27 for this past week.