The world’s most famous pop-statistician gets it:
The relationship between the current rise in COVID cases and the partisanship of a state/city/county is much weaker and more complicated than the commentariat seems to assume. https://t.co/m5wOcjZFTS
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 26, 2020
Do not get me wrong: it’s bad in Arizona, Texas, Florida, and other states right now.
BUT, most of the things you may see saying that it’s super-wrong in those places are based on either total cases, cases not scaled by population, or both.
But what you need to look at is new cases. And you need to scale those by the population of the region they’re measured over.
When you do that, you find COVID is getting worse in red states and blue states.
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