Friday, April 26, 2013

Real GDP Growth for 2013 I

The advance report came out this morning: 2.5% (annualized). With the final revision to the previous quarters growth of 0.4% (annualized), this puts total growth over the last 12 months at 1.8%.

That is not enough to exceed the population growth rate of around 2%, so we’re talking about continued declines in real GDP per capita.

It’s now been 15 quarters since the trough … making this expansion one of medium length already. Yet total growth is only 8.3%

For comparison, Bush’s weak recovery in 2001-5 put up 10.9% growth over the same number of quarters. The somewhat stronger Bush/Clinton recovery of 1991-4 (that was bad enough to get Bush I voted out of office) got 13.2% over the same period. Reagan got 20.2% in his recovery.

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