Weak recoveries may be the new normal. We haven’t had a strong recovery since 1982-4. When we say the recession of 2007-9 was the worst since 1981-2, we end up implicitly claiming that the recovery since 2009 should look like 1982-4. There is no basis for thinking that assertions like that are any better than charting is for investment analysis. Having said that, we shouldn’t assume that this recovery should have been weak either.
| There’s an arthouse film called Thirty-Two Short Films About Glenn Gould. You’re getting Twenty-Six Short Posts from Dr. Tufte. :) These are on why it’s difficult to understand the current macroeconomic situation. Joe Baker is not a macroeconomist, but we all do a little bit of everything at SUU, so he has to teach principles of macroeconomics sometimes. The other day he asked for pointers about summing up for his students why we can’t quite figure out what’s wrong with the economy. I came up with 26 reasons, most of which have been discussed in class, and all of which are now required. |
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