Tuesday, April 7, 2020

COVID-19 # 48 (Required Parts Highlighted)

The quarantine ended in Wuhan today. Reports are that the train stations were full, mostly with people leaving.

In the UK they are rolling out 5G phone services, just like here in the US. Those will help a lot with all of us trying to stay in touch through the internet. Except that there are internet rumors that the new cell towers are causing the disease so people are setting them on fire. You can't make stuff like this up.

Around the world, journalists are being arrested in increasing numbers for merely covering the pandemic in certain countries.

Iran has been making a stink about removing sanctions ever since the outbreak hit. But here's their official position:

They don't actually want help. They just want the sanctions removed.

Austria has announced plans to be the first European country to relax its quarantine measures. Starts next Tuesday with small shops being allowed to re-open with restrictions. A month ago, Austria was called a lot of bad names for closing their border with Italy.

Meanwhile, in the U.S., governors have roled out stay-at-home orders at different times:
I'm all for federalism, so I'd like to see who chose best. Having said that, whomever chose worse is going to have more deaths.

More evidence that deaths are undercounted:
This is similar to Wuhan 2 months ago, where the cremation business showed way more activity than was in the official numbers.

And ... Quorum ... an operator of 24 hospitals (including the one in Tooele) is preparing a Chapter 11 filing. Don't panic: Chapter 11 does allow operations to remain open, it just puts up a barrier against creditors. The problem for a hospital though, is that vendors are unlikely to keep shipping them supplies.

South Korea has been the gold standard for testing, but now it's Switzerland (which is one of the worst hit countries in Europe).
Do note that this scaled per million people, so logging it is probably not a great idea. The U.S. is closing in on South Korea, which is not something you're likely to pick up from the TV.

Remember what I posted about time series charts not implying destiny? Here's the updated one for western Europe:

The Netherlands has figured out something that others have not. I more or less predicted something like this would happen: just because trending data has hung together in the past does not imply it will hang together in the future.

Finally, some actual news out of Iran.
... About half a million people in Iran are suffering from COVED-19, a member of the National Coronavirus Combat Taskforce has disclosed. Speaking to the Islamic Republic's official news agency, IRNA, on Monday, April 6, Hamid Souri asserted...
This is from Radio Farda. This would make the Iranian outbreak the worst one in the world. It is broadly consistent with the number of deaths kept track of by dissident group PMOI/MEK, which is now at 19,500, implying a fatality rate of 4%, which (while on the high side) had not been unheard of in other locations. Also, the U.S. is looking to block Iran's request for $5B in aid from the IMF: they are OK with goods and services aid going to Iran, but they don't want cash that can be put to other uses going there. Also, the Iranian military has cancelled a big parade in Tehran scheduled for later this month.

 Boris Johnson is reported to be receiving only supplemental oxygen in the ICU, and is not on a ventilator. He is breathing on his own. I'm speculating here, but low levels of oxygen are typically delivered through a canula. Higher levels require a hood or tent with a higher oxygen concentration inside.

The Health Minister in Israel, who publicly claimed that SARS-CoV-2 infections are related to moral failings, has tested positive. 

China reported zero deaths today, for the first time since mid-January. Also, BBC reports that China's successes do not seem to be reported much by Chinese media. Their speculation matches up with a point I've made in class:
China's government tends not to trust the numbers it announces, which are reported without caveat in the western press. Also, Xi Jinping has been spotted in public in Beijing twice this week ... both times wearing a mask. Videos from Guangzhou show the quarantine is still in place there.

I'm keeping any eye on these countries over the next few weeks; India, Japan, Russia, and Turkey. I'm not liking what I'm hearing out of them.
 
On a personal note, our friend in Australia who was hospitalized, has been released. 
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