This chart suggests that Utah is still in pretty good shape (we are not on here, so use your imagination). The curves are estimates of equivalent-mortality lines (level sets, sort of like indifference curves). For example, if you're at the top left, you've tested a lot, but the deaths haven't really hit you yet, and as you go towards the "southeast" you're getting less cases identified, but more deaths from as yet unidentified cases. So the curves capture regions that have comparable outbreaks, even if they do not have comparable testing and enumerating policies. Obviously, your region is worse if you are towards the "northeast". The "tails" indicate the movement over the last week: no state is improving.
Given today's numbers (21 deaths out of 3,206,000 population puts us at) 0.65 on the axis along the top, while (2,683 cases out that population puts us) 8.4 on the scale along the vertical axis. So ... a small circle above and to the left of the T in Tennessee. This comes from a fantastic weekly report from the CDC of China. Data like this, since it is scaled by population does not (and usually should not) be logged.
They also produced one for countries. Comparing these is somewhat difficult. If overlayed on the one above, the one below would look more like landscape format.
On a good note, the lengths of the tails suggest that European countries are getting worse faster than U.S. states.
On a bad note, the April 1 edition shows estimates of R0 versus weather. It shows no signs of R0 falling as weather warms up, or of being lower in tropical regions. There is also little difference between northern and southern hemispheres.
Also of interest in the above is that Sweden is currently the world leader in following a policy of not social distancing. They're not doing too great.
The same paper also included this chart:
This one requires a little more care to interpret. Going to the right isn't good, but it isn't scaled by population: the U.S. has the 3rd biggest population, so we shouldn't be surprised if it is at the top for number of cases. But it's definitely bad going up; "flattening the curve" is equivalent to moving downwards. I mentioned several days ago that I was really concerned about Russia and Turkey, and this shows why. I was also concerned about Japan, which does not look too bad here (although I suspect if Japan tested more they'd move higher).
Here's the bad news. While that study was released yesterday, it shows data only through April 8th. We've had a week to get worse.
I've been reporting figures for Iran from dissident sites. Now there's this:
That is a semi-official number indicating 10 times as many cases and twice as many deaths as the official numbers. Meanwhile, the official numbers coming out of Iran today showed the lowest number of deaths in almost 5 weeks. I hate to say I told you so ...Iran Parliament’s research center reporting government was vastly undercounting coronavirus cases and deaths.— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) April 16, 2020
Estimating 760,000 cases and 8,500 deaths.
Would make Iran’s caseload highest in the world.
Brazil's minister of health was fired. President Bolsonaro has been downplaying the risks of SARS-CoV-2 after having a mild case after a visit to Mar-a-lago.
There is a video from Douala, the capital of Cameroon showing the aftermath of the top doctor at a hospital dying of SARS-CoV-2. The nurses then ... ran away.
About a third of those surveyed believe the virus was created in a lab. I know it's fun to play around with that idea, but the best evidence is that this is still an urban myth.
There's a new dash board on county level preparedness. On a 1 to 100 scale (with 100 the best), Iron County is a 32. Washington County, with 5 times as many people, is a 12. Washington and neighboring Garfield Counties are the 2 worst in the state. Most frighteningly, they don't predict Utah will peak until August 3rd. I can probably get into a lot of trouble with President Wyatt for noting what that means for Fall semester. There's not much way to check that peak date (no one is forecasting this stuff ... what they are doing is simulating, and that's much sketchier) but they seem fairly accurate for the area around NYC.
Is this sobering enough for you?
Here is the story of today's @ONS mortality statistics in a single chart. The worst week for UK mortality (all causes) since records began.— Ed Conway (@EdConwaySky) April 14, 2020
The blue area shows the minimum and maximum mortality each week since 2010.
The red line shows you this year so far. pic.twitter.com/j71W00tCVy
Worst week ever is fairly convincing. And the UK is not as bad off as, say, Italy or New York City.
Singapore has been doing a great job. Singapore's cases have been rising ominously for a while, and they were up 20% again today. Uh-oh.
Gasoline is sold wholesale at racks. Our rack is off Highway 56 about 20 miles west of town. Retail prices are typically marked up $0.20 to $0.60 over rack prices. Up to the minute rack price information is sort'of a trade secret; for data you don't have to pay for, you're probably looking at 30+ days out of date. Anyway, Bloomberg reports that storage facilities in the midwest are so full that rack prices have dropped to $0.12 per gallon, implying retail prices under $1.
I am just suspicious at this point, but I am getting leery of the hospitalization numbers (I'm talking mostly about NYC, because what else does anyone look at these days). I think what we may be seeing is the message getting out that unless you are having difficulty breathing you should stay away from the hospitals. This is lightening the load in emergency rooms. What I'm seeing is the load not lightening in ICU's yet.
There's now a third regional group of governors trying to plan out a restart of the economy. I actually think these "beneficial cartels" are sort'of interesting, and a positive thing.
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