Friday, March 4, 2022

Hey! Remember Turkey? It's Still a Problem!

A month after firing their statistics chief after he delivered a report that inflation had hit 36%/yr, the new guy announced a rate of 54%/yr

That is a YoY measure.

We also discussed annualization in class. And NR asked the solid question that what was the sense of doing annualization at all?. One justification for it can be that in a situation like this, the YoY is combining low inflation months from a year ago (that might not be that relevant anymore) with more recent high inflation months. So to the extent that more recent past data might be more informative about future data. the 4.8%/mo. inflation rate from February annualizes up to just under 76%/yr.

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This part is not required.

For all its recent economic and political faults, do keep in mind that Turkey has historically been the 3rd most active member of NATO (after the U.S. and the U.K.). And, they've fought a dozen wars with Russia, although they were last in conflict a century ago.

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