Thursday, February 6, 2020

COVID-19 #07: Different Numbers (Required Parts are Highlighted)

The number of coronavirus cases has continued to rise. But, there are problems: 1) nothing goes in the official numbers unless there’s a test, 2) there are known shortages of tests, 3) there are suspicions that tests are not being provided, and 4) there are some areas without many labs (for example, lack of cases in Africa seems to result from a lack of labs).
The official numbers look currently are:
But there are now reports that Tencent has leaked alternative information. On 3 occasions over the last 2 weeks, internet glitches have revealed tables with rather different numbers, like these from last Saturday:
Left to right are "nationally confirmed cases," "suspected cases," "cured," and "deaths." (Internet photo)
Left to right, those are “Nationally Confirmed Cases”, “Suspected Cases”, “Cured”, and “Deaths”.
There’s more:
Although some are chalking up the images to users tampering with their browsers, the 154,023 infections on Feb. 1 are remarkably close to the estimate predicted on that date by a scientific modeling study carried out by the University of Hong Kong (HKU) and published on the Lancet website. The study estimates the number of cases is much more given the 2.68 spread rate per case, the doubling of total infections every 6.4 days, and known travel patterns in China and worldwide.
…
As the report estimated over 75,000 cases on Jan. 25, and the Feb. 1 post was seven days later, the number of cases in Wuhan alone, according to the model, should have reached 150,000, uncannily close to the 154,023 listed for all of China on the Tencent page. With nearly 12 days having passed since the report was released, the model predicts the number of infections in Wuhan could now stand at 300,000.
Hard to know what to think about these numbers. Are they real numbers being leaked? Are they fake numbers meant to foment panic?
P.S.


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