COVID-19 #08 (Required Parts are Highlighted)

I emphasized in an earlier post that that projections of infections and deaths done for this virus are similar to those we’re going to learn this semester. For those just interested in thinking about how they measure an epidemic and what they look for in the numbers, check out this Reddit thread. This was the source of the comment I made the other day that the CDC stalled on believing Chinese authorities that the virus was being transmitted from person to person prior to the appearance of symptoms.
If you’re interested in openness of Chinese society, here’s a podcast interview with someone who monitors China’s social media. He asserts that what is coming out of China online is unprecedented (in a positive way).
I also talked to SUU alum RB, both of whose parents are doctors in Shanghai. Their view is that the epidemic if overhyped and will wind down shortly. (I don’t recommend reading too much in to that “shortly”, since most respiratory epidemics wind down as the weather starts to warm up).
China’s official numbers are showing a decline:

2. #2019nCoV: Does the shrinking of the size of the new cases mean anything real? Dunno. Could it be because their system is overwhelmed? Yes. Does it mean this outbreak is abating? I wouldn't bet on it based on 2 data points. Too soon to know how to interpret this.

— Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) February 7, 2020

The WHO’s top doctor on epidemics concurred with this. China may not be able to produce tests fast enough.
BTW: the CDC distributed test kits capable of making 140,000 diagnoses across the U.S. this week. That gives you some sense of what they think might be coming.