Monday, February 24, 2020

COVID-19 # 16 (Required Parts are Highlighted)

A team from the WHO made an official visit to Wuhan over the weekend. It was the first time they’ve been allowed in. During a press conference earlier today they announced that the decline in cases there is real and not due to fudging the data. They assert that the epidemic was worst there between January 23rd and February 2nd.  Patients report that care in Wuhan for those with SARS-CoV-2 has improved. WHO also reported a death rate of 2-4% in Wuhan, but under 1% elsewhere; this is consistent with facilities in Wuhan being unable to keep up with treatment.
WHO emphasized that they are not praising how China has performed. But, they emphasized that mass quarantine was effective. I’m not sure how we’re supposed to reconcile those.
U.S. travel warnings are getting hard to keep track of. They are coming from two different sources, the State Department and the CDC. I put them in a table”
Country
State Department
Center for Disease Control and Prevention
China
4
3
Hong Kong

1
Japan

2
South Korea

2
Italy

1
Iran
4
1
Iran’s level 4 is about politics, arrests, and detentions.
The State Department’s level for China is specifically about COVID-19. Do not know why the two numbers for China are different, but they are. But get this:
I can believe the unfair treatment part. But, there are basically no anti-epidemic measures at all in the U.S., so the whole announcement seems hokey.
Italy has rapidly developed a big outbreak. There are videos from Rome of people in Hazmat suits; problem is the known outbreak is about 200 miles to the north. ANSA, the leading newswire service within Italy reports that a good chunk of the northern part of the country is on some sort of lockdown; 12+ towns are definitely in quarantine, with about 100K population.
Italy is part of the Shengen Area; where customs free travel between European countries is permitted. No country has asked yet, but there is a provision for this pact to be suspended if need be. Austria did unilaterally tighten its border with Italy.
Official stories out of China are that the outbreak is coming under control. Hard to reconcile that with this phone interview from Wuhan, where the quarantine has gotten tighter. Authorities in Wuhan announced that foreigners would be allowed to travel out of the city; this move was quickly reversed.
You may be seeing a new phrase: community-acquired infection. That means they don't have a clue how someone got it. This is what they're worried about in Japan and Iran.
For the first time, China has announced the aerosol transmission is confirmed. Basically, that's through normal breathing rather than coughing/sneezing. Not good.
Hubei has shifted back to requiring a positive test result to be counted in the official numbers. This will make them go down. This is the 6th time they've changed how the numbers are counted. Gee, that's helpful.
In an unconfirmed video from Twitter, a doctor from a hospital in Hunan confirms that he counted 50 new patients the other day and submitted those numbers to health officials. In turn, they included only 1 case in the official count.
There is growing suspicion that a 14 day quarantine may not be sufficient to declare someone virus-free; 27 is the new number being considered.
This graphic may be helpful:
The bars getting larger in several countries is not good.
China postponed the People's Party Congress in Beijing. It was scheduled years in advance for early March. It has not been postponed in 43+ years. It has yet to be rescheduled. This event is China’s annual meeting of party functionaries at all levels of government, drawing about 5K people officially, plus their retinues.
Car sales in China are off 92% in first half of February.
North Korea denies they have infections. BUT, they’ve quarantined all foreigners, and citizens who have traveled abroad. There are reports that a North Korean official was executed after breaking quarantine.

















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