Thursday, June 18, 2020

A Natural Experiment with Anthropogenic Climate Change

You all know what climate change means. Anthropogenic is the modifier that means caused by humans.

Almost all of what you hear in the news about anthropogenic climate change is based on correlation analysis. Correlation is not causation, but of course causation always has correlation if you dig deeply enough. To make things worse, we're working with trending data when we compare pollution to temperature, so we have to worry about spurious correlation.

Sooooo ... smart people look to natural experiments, and we've just had a doozy:
Look at the source: this data is not from climate change deniers.

Here's the thing: if we don't see a dip in global temperature trends that's correlated with this, then we can probably reject the anthropogenic part of climate change from future discussion.

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