Dr. Michael Osterholm, the director for the Center of Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, warned on Sunday that the country was likely to experience one long stretch of cases, hospitalizations and deaths.
“I don’t think this is going to slow down. I’m not sure the influenza analogy applies anymore,” he said on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” referring to a report he and colleagues wrote in April using influenza pandemics as a model for understanding the virus. “I think that wherever there’s wood to burn, this fire is going to burn it.”
“I don’t think we’re going to see one, two and three waves — I think we’re just going to see one very very difficult forest fire of cases,” Dr. Osterholm said.I think the idea of waves sounds pretty. But I have trouble conceiving of a mechanism by which it would happen.
Moreover, let's take New York City as an example. Currently they have just under 400K positives, and a population of 8,000K. That's about 5% of the population. So, if herd immunity kicks in around, say, 80%, NYC will have 16 more waves this size.
As I wrote ... waves sounds pretty. Does 16 more of them sound pretty?
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