Thursday, February 24, 2022

More Game Theory, from the Ukrainian Perspective

Ukraine is not playing a prisoners' dilemma with the U.S. and NATO. 

A prisoners' dilemma is one in which the strategies are chosen and revealed simultaneously.

Instead, Ukraine is playing a sequential game: one side moves first, then the other. Because Biden didn't do whatever (to prevent this), Putin is forcing Ukraine's hand. But again, because of inaction on our part, Ukraine gets to move first in a game with us.†

Now, the situation on the ground is unclear. But to the extent that Ukraine doesn't attack, merely defends itself, and looks like the victim ... they are limiting the viability of a strategy (on the part of NATO and the U.S.) to do little and hope the whole situation resolves itself. By playing the victim, they encourage us to act so we don't look like jerks.

Sorry if that makes you more worried.

† Please note that I'm not taking sides here. I'm not sure what Biden should have done differently either. I'm just stating what should be obvious:if they didn't want Putin to attack, and he did, then they should definitely have done something different.

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