Tuesday, March 30, 2021

One More Suez Visualization

When doing macro, you learn that stuff like this tends to happen again (like SARS coming back after 16 years), so it's useful to be able to know where to search for it. 

This visualization shows the re-routing of ship traffic in response to the closure of the Suez Canal:

Image 

Here's my source (which is not the original). The time stamp wasn't clear of the time zone, but it can narrow down this image to 50-60 hours after the Ever Given ran aground.

Different services use different colors for types of ships, so I'm not sure what they all mean here (although orange must be oil tankers, since there's a bunch of them in the oil fields off of Angola).

Ships really do travel in sea lanes, which outline the shortest route from one place to another. The one at 9 o'clock is going to Rio, 10 o'clock to the U.S., 11 o'clock to western Europe, 11:30 along Africa's coast, 1 o'clock to the Suez Canal and the Persian Gulf, and 2 o'clock to the outlet of the deepwater Strait of Malacca which leads to East Asia. Ships to the south of that are going individually to the shallow but more direct Sunda Strait, the off the beaten track Lombok strait, and sparsely populated western Australia.

The density of ships on that 2 o'clock sea lane is higher because ships have already shifted to that route to go to western Europe while avoiding the Suez. It may not look like it, but the extent of what's shown of that at 2 o'clock sea lane goes more than halfway across the Indian Ocean. So increased traffic showing up there already should not be surprising. 

There is no corresponding density increase on the west side because the split to go one way or another is much further to the north, and around northwestern Africa. In this visualization, any of those diverted ships aren't on the screen yet.

The trip around the Cape of Good Hope from Asia to western Europe takes about 30% more time and fuel than going through the Suez.



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