COVID-19 # 50 (Required Parts Highlighted)

As long as you don't use this sort of chart the wrong way (to make a forecast by presuming that each location behaves the same way), it can still be used in interesting ways:

This gives a sense that small improvements in "flattening the curve" can lead to big declines in deaths. And, I just checked the data: Utah just recently had its 10th death, so if we were to go on this graph it would be way down at the left.

Here's a time series graph to help you digest what is going on in New York City:

All of those peaks every winter are the flu. Any thoughts on whether this is just like the flu? Oh ... and sharper photos of those trench graves in New York City show the coffins are stacked three high.

That cool chart that TL brought to me from Flouish has been updated. I could not get it to repost properly, so you'll just have to click through, but COVID-19 has now moved up to be the #1 cause of death in the U.S. The other day it was # 3.

Contact tracing is how South Korea did so well. In it, you figure out everyone a person came in contact with, and you find them and get them quarantined. Here's what happens when you don't:

This is from Chicago. In South Korea they got cellphone data showing where positives had been, and reached out to every other person with a phone who'd been to that place.

New research from the CDC estimates that the R0 of SARS-CoV-2 is much higher than previously thought. Their 95% confidence interval for R0 is 3.8 to 8.9.

Remember federalism? Ian Bremmer makes an excellent point:

Trump isn’t going to re-open the country.

He’ll say the country should open. And most governors—who actually wield the authority—will keep it locked down.

Similar to what’s already been playing out in Brazil.

— ian bremmer (@ianbremmer) April 10, 2020

This is the flip side of some governors (like Herbert in Utah) not shutting down their states. Do note that Utah is now requiring travelers from outside the state to divulge their travel plans once arriving in our state.

This is a personal opinion.

But it's okay to take a moment and just fully realize, this is one of the worst things to have ever happened. And there's no sugar to coat it.https://t.co/LTelcTbOEM

— Brian Resnick (@B_resnick) April 10, 2020

Numbers continue to go up in our region: 52 positives in southwestern Utah and 4 people in the hospital. The much smaller Central Utah Public Health Department (which is likely to send some cases to the hospital in Cedar City) now has a COVID-19 page up and running. They are up to 6 cases and 1 hospitalization. The worst hit is Millard County, which is in the area that probably will send people to Cedar City.

And here's an example of how not to use a log scale.

The math here is correct but the perception it created is incorrect. This invites comparison of the black, blue, and red curves, and the eye is drawn to the distance between them. But, because of the log scale, that distance doesn't mean the same amount on the right and left of the chart.