Thursday, March 19, 2020

COVID-19 # 26 (Required Parts are Highlighted)

I think, going forward, that what I put in a post will be do what I do in one sitting at one one computer, rather than on a schedule related to class time.

Here's the Imperial College report that was in government hands last week, and which became public on Monday. It suggests that 2.2 million deaths are possible in the U.S. The lead author, Neil Ferguson, tested positive today.

Now China is getting weird. This week they ordered out all American reporters from the big 3 newspapers. They claim this is in response to restrictions placed on Chinese reporters in the U.S., and I think this is a little true. But I think it's mostly about the recasting of China's late national policy moves to contain their outbreak as timely: they are not happy with people who point out that Beijing approved of policy moves to suppress news of new disease in Wuhan and Hubei through the first 3 weeks of January.
A poorly understood feature of the expulsion is that it applies to China and Hong Kong. Except Hong Kong is supposed to have a different "system". I guess that's a farce. FWIW: Taiwan has offered to let all the expelled journalists base themselves there.

In particular, this follow the wide dissemination of an interview with Dr. Ai Fen. This was originally published only in the form of Mandarin spoken around Beijing. In Wuhan, they speak a dialect of Mandarin that is somewhat unintelligible in Beijing (sort of like Americans listening to Scots speak English). Dr. Ai speaks the Wuhan dialect, so the interview required some interpretation. While it was freely published in Beijing, it was quickly suppressed. Many people inside China, and out, are working to keep it in circulation. You can read an English translation here. Anyway, she was the doctor who first ran the blood test that returned the result of SARS (due to similarity with the viral outbreak of 2002-3). Her work was what was spread by the late Dr. Li Wenliang. Both were punished.

More recently, two professors in Hong Kong published an article:

They have not retracted this article, claiming that its results were interpreted politically.

Also, Hong Kong will not reopen schools until at least April 20th. That's hard to reconcile with an outbreak that is under control.

Iran has continued to be weird. There have been conflicting reports that President Rouhani (their president is important, but not their top leader) is promoting holiday shopping for the Persian New Year, while the military is simultaneously trying to keep the public indoors. Rouhani has also publicly denied that official tallies are being announced with a delay to keep the numbers lower. They've also furloughed more prisoners, including some political prisoners with ankle monitors. I still find no justification for that at all, so I'm leaning towards not enough workers in the prisons. Also, Iran finally got around to closing some shrines that pilgrims visit ... and there were riots.

In Bergamo, one of the hardest hit cities in northern Italy, here's the evidence on deaths:
They seem to be about 7 times higher than a month ago. That's consistent with the Wuhan crematorium evidence from early February. Also, the Italian Army has been transporting bodies out of Bergamo to other cities because its crematoria are running 24/7. There are also credible reports that hospitals in Bergamo are triaging: no one over 70 is being admitted if they need respiratory care. Here's more. The word they are using to describe what happened to ICU's in Italy is ... tsunami.

Similar to China, Italy shows massive declines in nitrogen oxide(s) pollution.

Angela Merkel, in a televised address, called COVID-19 the worst thing to hit Germany since World War II. Hmmm. So it beats national divison, communism and the Stasi, the Berlin Airlift, the Berlin Wall, and reunification. That's quite a lot.

Singapore has done a much better job of containing their outbreak than almost all other countries (China's very legitimate success is a joke compared to Singapore's). Wonder why? Check out this article: they trace down the contacts and locations of everyone who tests positive. Can you imagine anyone doing that kind of legwork in America?

In America, I noted a few posts back that Seattle had reported an uptick in people going to emergency rooms with flu-like symptoms going back for several weeks. There is now speculation that these were SARS-CoV-2 cases, but there's no way to know because few tests were done. Now they've looked at New York City, and found the same thing dating back to about March 1.
Also, a well-known pathology professor at the University of Washington is succumbed to the disease. The Wall Street Journal has confirmed this uptick with a longer data set. Just for curiousity's sake, keep in mind the occurrences of "odd" pneumonias in Cedar City this winter. You might also want to take a look at this experimental work by Caitlin Rivers, showing large upticks flu-like illnesses in both California and Missouri. That Missouri result could be important if they show a lot of COVID-19 activity in a few weeks. BTW: we are in HHS Region 8 in her charts, and we're on the upswing too (although we don't have a spike).

Ready to be scared? There's now a site with a map of county level data for the outbreak. It doesn't seem to be in Cedar City yet ... although we have no way to test for it here.

Excellent chart showing that the more you test, the more cases you find. Be careful with this one: the cause on the horizontal-axis is cases, which leads to more tests on the vertical axis:

Note the log scale on both axes! Also, note that the U.S. is right in the middle: Japan and France aren't testing much either. And India barely tests, so they're not finding out much.

The first breakdown of cases by age in the U.S. shows that young people are just as likely as the old to end up in the hospital (1 in 5), or in the ICU (1 in 5 of those that are hospitalized). Apparently the young survive the rigors of intubation and ventilation better than seniors. It still does not sound like fun. Oh ... and in Italy, half of the ICU patients are under 65.

BTW: Keep in mind that response is mostly state-level in the U.S., and the current consensus is that the most aggressive state is:
Check back in a month and see how that works out.

Good advice from a Utahn:
JE: 2 cases in Ghana.

Didja' ever watch it?
I watched some of it, and liked it.
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