COVID-19 # 28 (Required Parts are Highlighted)

The U.S. has finally gotten serious about testing (although we are nowhere near the numbers Trump promised; go figure). Through today, about 101K test results are in. The positive rate is 11-12%. That's high. Earlier positive rates in the low single digits were of those in hospitals getting treatment for respiratory problems: a small set to be sure, and one in which there are a lot of other causes. The 11-12% is reflective of the broader population: it's people mostly outside of hospitals who know they are sick with something.

There's new research on the serial interval — the length of time from when a first person gets sick to the time a second person they infect get sick. The estimate is 4 days. Keep that in mind if someone in your home gets sick.

Here's a scary thought. Most people who sign organ donor cards — and who unfortunately get in the position of donating — are kept alive using ventilators for hour or maybe a few days until suitable recipients are found. Yeah ... same ventilators that will soon be occupied by SARS-CoV-2 patients.

Here's another time series plot of adult visits to emergence rooms for flu-like symptoms:

Quite the spike there in the last few weeks, but note that it starts in late February before anyone in NYC was known to have SARS-CoV-2.

It's nice, but it's too little to late. China has deemed the punishment of Dr. Li Wenliang inappropriate and due to flawed procedures. The penalty? One deputy policy chief was given a demerit, and an officer was reprimanded (see @XinqiSu for coverage).