Saturday, March 21, 2020

Some Infection and Hospitalization Scenarios

Remember what I said back in early January: that macroeconomics is about geographic correlation?

ProPublica put together this article with 9 national maps of scenarios at the hospital region level (since hospitals often draw from a region much larger than a city or a county). The maps aren't interactive, but it does allow you to chart out how the region you're in will fair in each scenario. Importantly, it also shows baseline hospitalization usage, which is expected to continue.

It's not pretty. The western U.S. will fair worst. I'm not sure why this is, but I suspect it's because university teaching hospitals require a large population to support, and that's mostly found back east.

(This may be my easterner prejudices showing, but I also wonder if it's because distrust of doctors and hospitals seems to be more of a western thing).

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